Will Trump’s Administration reflect the Darkness of his Campaign?

Will Trump’s Administration reflect the Darkness of his Campaign?

Ambassador Curtis A. Ward

(08 November 2024) — We have been here before with Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. The chaos in the White House began the day he took the oath of office on January 20, 2017. His inauguration then marked the day when domestic and global uncertainty became a real challenge.  The threats posed by Trump’s first presidency rattled the diplomatic community in the U.S. capital and in capitals around the world. Not expecting him to win then, they struggled to quickly comprehend the meaning of his America First policy.

Very few top-level foreign diplomats during Trump’s first presidency are still in Washington and many liberal democracies have new leadership. But the experiences of the Trump years as president are indelible and the international community now seek answers on a new version of America First. As could be discerned of Trump’s first presidency in real time, there were limited constraints placed on the president’s actions, since confirmed by former senior members of Trump’s then inner circle. Those experienced professionals are gone and will have no role in a new Trump administration. Those closer to Trump now are a mix of conspiracy theorists, global isolationists, right-wing zealots, and those with low-level or no experience in government.

There should be no doubt the blueprint for Trump’s presidency is Project 2025 which provides frightening details of what to expect. Those who failed to read the 922-page document before are forced now to delve deeply into its pages to have an idea of what to expect, both domestic and foreign. Project 2025 assures domestic chaos and global insecurity. If it sounds ominous is because it is.

Trump’s America First policy will be on steroids. The first Trump presidency was a practice session. The real game begins on January 20, 2025. We must believe Trump when he tells us what he will do. For starters, he said he will be a dictator on day one. Believe him! That could have far-reaching implications for America and the international community.

On the domestic front his conservative U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) has given him blanket immunity on actions carried out within his official capacity as president. That should be frightening to anyone who believes in democracy, the rule of law and good governance. It will upend immigrant families. Trump pledged to seek retribution against his real or perceived domestic political enemies. He will use the immunity given him by the SCOTUS to push the limits of his power. That is most troubling and dangerous for America’s future as a democracy, the rule of law, and the exercise of basic freedoms.

On the international scene, three international security and geopolitical issues emerge at the top of the list as matters of grave concern — Russia’s war in Ukraine, Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon and the future of the Palestinian people, and the threat of a war with Iran.

As he has said repeatedly, he will immediately and summarily end the war in Ukraine, which means ending all military aid to Kyiv. He will try to force Ukraine to cede territory to Russia thus giving his friend Vladimir Putin a victory. Ukraine will resist. Western Europe and NATO will face significant challenges, and NATO could collapse — a victory for Russia will endanger Europe’s future. The United Nations system will be severely tested in unprecedented ways. But it is hoped that even a Republican U.S. Congress, though traditionally not supportive of the UN, will not rollover and allow Trump to dismantle world order to the disadvantage of U.S. national security interests.

Trump has intimated quite strongly that he will give Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu a free hand, including necessary U.S. military support to finish the job of exterminating Hamas, significantly degrading or eliminating Hezbollah, and dealing a death blow to Palestinian aspirations for a state of their own. Israeli wars in Gaza and Lebanon will escalate. The Iran-backed Houthi’s in Yemen are likely to become full participants in the war. Any chance of peace in the region will be further diminished.

Trump will support Netanyahu’s targeted military attacks on Iran which could likely evolve into all out war between Israel and Iran with America joining in a war that could engulf the entire Middle East. And Iran will not back away from Israel’s targeted surgical attacks which are likely to increase as Netanyahu is emboldened by Trump’s support.

Trump’s isolationist policy is likely to disengage the U.S. from other hotspots where U.S. interests may not be directly involved. It won’t matter that U.S. allies will be adversely affected. Trump’s America First policy means only that which is in America’s interests narrowly defined according to Trump in determining his administration’s foreign engagement. Leaders around the world who understand the security and geopolitical risks are worried and are no doubt contemplating alternatives to America’s partnerships and alliances.

Trump’s legacy in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) from his first presidency, including the rise of autocratic leadership in the region, faced some pushback but not eliminated during Joe Biden’s presidency. Autocratic tendencies in weak democratic systems are likely to see a revival. There will be increased tension between the Trump administration and the governments of Cuba and Venezuela. Actions against these two countries will have severe regional implications, particularly for Caricom member states. China’s “predatory economic practices” will be center stage in LAC.

The Organization of American States (OAS), which faces election of a new Secretary-General in 2025, will be severely tested. Trump will be uncompromising in coercing OAS members to submit to his LAC policies. Pressure will mount on Caribbean leaders who dare to resist Trump’s will. Disunity looms among Caricom members as was evident during the first Trump administration.

© Curtis A. Ward/The Ward Post