Ukraine v. Russia — Who gets to decide?

Ambassador Curtis A. Ward

(22 February 2025) –– President Donald Trump’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war, simply put, is ‘Putin gets what Putin wants.’ Trump’s complete U-turn on U.S. policy of holding Putin responsible for the illegal invasion and territorial aggression completely reverses US support for Ukraine and awarding Putin’s tyranny. The Trump-Putin discussions on the future of Ukraine are set in defiance of overwhelming international support in United Nations General Assembly resolutions holding Putin-led Russia in gross violation of international law. Seizing another country’s territory by military aggression is specifically prohibited by international law, including the laws of war as defined in the Geneva Conventions, and in violation of the UN Charter. No concessions should be given to an aggressor country. Trump’s misattribution of the invader and the invaded – Russia being the aggressor – is not based on facts.

While European countries continue to back Ukraine against Russia, without U.S. support it is now highly unlikely that Ukraine will be able to resist Russian aggression far into the future. Trump’s resolve to end the war means conceding Ukraine’s territory to Putin – the exact result Putin sought by invading Ukraine. The exclusive dialogue between the U.S. and Russia on ending the war only benefits Russia. Meeting without inclusion of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and leaders of Western Europe follows Putin’s script. It is mind-boggling that with such high stakes for the future of the people of Ukraine and Western Europe that Trump and Putin are the sole arbiters of Ukraine’s future, and literally the future of Europe.

Ukraine’s Resolve – Won’t Cede Territory

Ending U.S. military aid to Ukraine will give Putin significant military advantage that will lead to increased loss of Ukrainian lives and forcing an unsatisfactory ending to the war. It means ceding Ukrainian territory already under Russian control just as Putin desires. Trump will say yes to all of Putin’s demands. President Zelenskyy will say ‘No!’. Ukraine will not bow to Trump’s pressure and Putin’s will. Ukraine will seek to defend its territory and demand Russian withdrawal as a precondition to ending the war. But the cost in Ukrainian lives will weigh heavily on Zelenskyy’s resolve. While Zelenskyy is likely to receive support in the U.S. Congress where several Republican legislators strongly support Ukraine, it is doubtful Trump’s juggernaut can be stopped or even slowed. So far, Republican legislators have shown zero resistance to any of Trump’s policies. What Trump wants, Trump gets!

In defiance of facts, Trump’s latest rationale for backing Russia is to blame Ukraine for starting the war. Fact is, Ukraine is defending against an invasion of its territory by Russia’s military forces – external aggression. Trump defies the majority votes in the United Nations General Assembly holding Russia responsible for the war, and for gross violations of international law. He goes against America’s European allies and NATO partners who hold Russia responsible for the war. He defies the International Criminal Court for its finding of violations of the Laws of War by Russian troops under orders of Vladimir Putin. Trump completely ignores the heroic sacrifices of the Ukrainian people, whose thousands of lives lost is the greatest sacrifice in defense of democracy and freedom since World War II. Gross violations of human rights in Ukraine by Russian troops is not a factor for President Trump. Instead of blaming and condemning Putin, he blames Zelenskyy.

We know President Trump carries a grudge against Zelenskyy for having refused Trump’s quid pro quo to investigate false claims against Joe Biden in exchange for US assistance during Trump’s first four years as president. Who can forget this quid pro quo, viewed by House Democrats as attempted bribery of the Ukraine president resulting in Trump’s first impeachment? Trump hasn’t forgotten, and he is known to carry a grudge in perpetuity. He is prepared to cede Ukraine’s territory to Russia to avenge his narcissistic ego in keeping with his presidential campaign pledge of retribution. As is often repeated, ‘Believe him when he says what he will do.’

Dizzying and Dangerous Foreign Policy

Trump’s imperial hubristic foreign policy has so far gone unchecked. No respite will come from the Republican majority-controlled Congress as Republican legislators cower in the face of Trump’s threat to their political careers. Trump’s dominance and control of the Republican Party will continue so long as his MAGA supporters remain a significant percentage, approximately 35%, of Republican voters. There is no end in sight, as they are strengthened in their resolve to back Trump during his second occupancy of the White House. MAGA supporters’ loyalty to him are expressed through their ability to punish Trump’s political detractors within the Republican Party.

Trump’s foreign policy is dizzying and dangerous. Not just for Ukraine but for several countries in every region of the world. From his desire to purchase Greenland, incorporate Canada as the 51st state of the United States, for U.S. ownership of Gaza, to sanctions imposed on South Africa, and shutting down the USAID and desperately needed global humanitarian programs create geopolitical and international security uncertainties and threats.

Latin America & Caribbean

Trump’s policies in Latin America and the Caribbean should concern Caribbean leaders, as leaders around the world are troubled by Trump’s policies impacting their regions. Under this Trump administration it is more likely than not that designation of Cuba as ‘a state sponsor of terrorism’ could have collateral effects on all countries friendly with and doing business with Cuba. Secondary sanctions should not be ruled out. Haiti will not receive necessary support from the Trump administration to deal with the problems besetting the country. Relationships with Venezuela could draw Trump’s ire. And, in LAC, relations with China will strain relations with the Trump administration.

During his first presidency, his secretaries of state Rex Tillerson and Mike Pompeo warned of China’s ‘predatory economic practice’ and visited countries in the region, including Jamaica to deliver that warning. This time around, the stage is already set for confrontation with China. CARICOM leaders must be prepared.

© Curtis A. Ward/The Ward Post