Trump’s strategy for regime change in Venezuela—How far will he go?

Trump’s strategy for regime change in Venezuela—How far will he go?

Ambassador Curtis A. Ward

(17 November 2025)--Indications are President Donald Trump will employ military forces to violently topple President Nicolas Maduro from power in Venezuela—regime change by violent means.  If by violent military action, when and how much force he will deploy on the battlefield is mere speculation. The level of military force required will depend on the will of the Venezuelan military to resist. The level of bloodshed may rest with the level of civilian resistance.

In analyzing this situation we must begin with the clear objective of the actions of the Trump administration—regime change. The strategy includes several elements and scenarios.

 

Mass deportation of Venezuelans and regime change strategy

As I have written before, regime change is not new policy. Trump’s objective was well established during his first administration. Not only had I written about this in 2019, but based on my analysis I predicted that it would fail and Maduro would outlast the first Trump administration. The second Trump administration added new elements to its strategy.

When president Barack Obama first imposed sanctions on Venezuela in 2014, the U.S. objective was clear—behavior change, not regime change. It was to coerce Maduro to end human rights abuses, political abuse and repression of dissent, denial of press freedom and destroying democracy and the rule of law were among the reasons. Maduro felt little pressure from those sanctions and it was business as usual in Venezuela.

Trump administration’s regime change strategy is a collection of measures, including military aggression.

Mass deportation of thousands of illegal Venezuelan immigrants in the U.S.—returning immigrants—represents a potential destabilizing force for the Maduro regime. Deportation is part of a series of new actions taken by the Trump administration to pressure the Venezuelan government. The reason thousands of Venezuelans presumably fled Venezuela in the first place was to escape the repressive policies of the Maduro regime. While sending them back to Venezuela where the conditions they fled have grown worse their forced return are swelling the ranks of opposition forces against Maduro. But the harsh treatment they received from the Trump administration in its mass deportation policy may switch their allegiance towards their own country inadvertently strengthening Maduro’s control of Venezuela. However, without empirical evidence, it is too early for a definitive conclusion.

Former failure replaced by new strategy

Upon taking office in 2017, president Trump’s administration imposed more severe sanctions on Venezuela and sought to replace Maduro with Juan Guaido, the former president of the Venezuelan National Assembly. Not only was Guaido designated interim president by the Trump administration, he was given access to millions of dollars from financial resources and assets frozen in U.S. banks pursuant to the sanctions regime imposed on Venezuela. While the Trump Administration persuaded some countries to join in recognizing Juan Guaido as interim president, Maduro’s grip on power was unshaken. It became stronger. Maduro had in his favor the loyalty of his top military leaders. The Trump administration could neither coerce or force them to betray Maduro—they were not supportive of foreign interference in Venezuela internal affairs. At least not during the first Trump administration.

Has the U.S.-Venezuela dynamics shifted sufficiently to favor regime change? Maybe! Is the shift enough to win the support of dissident military leaders? Probably not but is now a possibility!

The Trump administration has gone much further than sanctions to achieve victory—to effect regime change.

Sanctions & $50 million Bounty

First, President Trump ratcheted up the sanctions against Venezuela, specifically targeting Maduro and some of his top military and civilian supporters. This may have been seen as more aggressive coercive action to induce behavior change, but the original objective of President Obama’s administration—behavior change—had long been set aside and replaced with regime change.

Second, the Trump administration simultaneously placed a $50 million bounty on Maduro—deliver him to U.S. jurisdiction to face, at a minimum, drug trafficking charges. That did not appear to be swaying the generals. There had to be further action to drive fear in the military to avoid significant bloodshed which would be inevitable should Trump launch a military invasion of Venezuela.

Military attacks and Extrajudicial Killings

Third, the Trump administration, in early September, launched military attacks against small boats leaving Venezuela in the Caribbean Sea. These attacks on so-called narco-trafficking terrorists, in addition to more recent attacks against small boats leaving Colombia territory, have killed some fifty people. The Trump administration has provided no legal justification for these extrajudicial killings. Not surprising! These killings are illegal in U.S. domestic law and in international law. If these attacks were intended to drive fear in the ranks of Venezuela leadership they appear not to have achieved that objective.

CIA covert operation

Fourth, President Trump himself made it known that he ordered a CIA covert operation in Venezuela. For what purpose? The Trump administration hasn’t provided a rationale. Normally, a CIA covert operation would be clandestine in nature—to allow for deniability should the operation go awry. Again by giving public knowledge to Venezuelan military leaders and close associates of Maduro is another reason to reconsider their support of the Venezuelan President before it is too late; to side with the Trump administration  now and save their own skins.

Covert operations in a foreign country engages in several actions—assassinations, destabilization—stir political opposition, support violent insurrection with money and weapons–and to facilitate on-the-ground targeting of specific military assets in Venezuela.

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Military poised for aggression

The fifth element in this Trump administration policy is the massive military buildup by President Trump in the Caribbean. A massive military invasion of Venezuela now seems to be imminent unless those with the power to surrender Maduro decide to cave. By positioning such a massive military force, the Trump administration sends the strongest possible warning yet to Maduro and his military, short of an actual invasion.

Trump administration’s actions are quite concerting.  Some European  countries are taking measures to distance themselves from Trump administration policies against Venezuela. They are witnessing the destruction of global order—the rule of rule in international affairs—by the Trump administration without the possibility of accountability. That is anathema to the rules based international order.

Where is CARICOM?

Caribbean countries, particularly CARICOM members, should be alarmed and speaking out forcefully against the possible violent confrontation between the United States and Venezuela. CARICOM members should be alarmed at the complicity of the government of Trinidad & Tobago—a CARICOM member state—in this plot against Venezuela.

Will there be accountability for the leaders of the T&T government for the extrajudicial killings of the victims in the Caribbean Sea, and for complicity with the U.S. pursuit of military aggression against the sovereign state of Venezuela. This scenario leaves international legal scholars to ponder  possibilities—such as a prosecutorial role for the International Criminal Court. And, for CARICOM governments, what’s next?

©2025 — The Ward Post / Curtis A. Ward