Rubio’s visit to Jamaica, Guyana, and Suriname — what it means for the region

Rubio’s visit to Jamaica, Guyana, and Suriname — what it means for the region

Ambassador Curtis A. Ward

 

(30 March 2025) – In his second trip to Latin America and the Caribbean, Secretary of State Marco Rubio made Jamaica his first country to visit in the English-speaking Caribbean. A bilateral meeting between Rubio and Jamaica’s prime minister Andrew Holness was first on the agenda.

Why is that significant? Several reasons.

Not only is Jamaica the largest English-speaking country in LAC, the US has a bilateral and regional security strategic interest in Jamaica. And, while the US determines the terms of the security partnership, Jamaica’s full cooperation is important. Both the US and Jamaica are mutual beneficiaries of bilateral and regional security partnerships.

Trump’s America First foreign policy

I have been asked repeatedly why Rubio chose Jamaica to visit so early in his tenure. Some may feel it’s because there is a personal relationship between him and prime minister Holness. The prime minister may have deliberately mooted that idea, having met with then senator Rubio along with senator Ted Cruz in the latter’s office on Capitol Hill several years ago.

I don’t believe there is any personal reason for Rubio’s visit. The visit was an effort to establish US foreign policy in the region. According to the U.S. State Department, “Secretary Rubio traveled to Jamaica, Guyana, and Suriname to advance President Trump’s America First foreign policy.” Everything else is cover for the real reason.

 

The case for special treatment for Jamaica

There are several geopolitical and security reasons. All business, nothing personal. Having said that, let me share a few of these reasons:

• Jamaica is strategically located in the shipping lanes from the Panama Canal to the eastern seaboard of the United States;
• Jamaica has the only container security initiative (CSI) certified port in the English-speaking Caribbean, and one-off only three in the region with direct cargo shipping to the US — Panama, Caucedo in the Dominican Republic, and Kingston — with Kingston, strategically located with the capacity to berth mega container ships and thus facilitates container shipping on smaller vessels to the US east coast;
• Jamaica has jurisdiction over the maritime space used by international narcotics traffickers from South America to the United States;
• Jamaica is viewed in strategic security terms as a vital partner to the U.S. across the region for anti-narcotrafficking and other security-related U.S. Southern Command operations in the region;
• Annual trade between the US and Jamaica totaling $3 billion is overwhelmingly in US favor, but Jamaica is a major trading partner in the region;
• Jamaica has traditionally been the leader within CARICOM on foreign policy, though not currently holding that position, the US expects Jamaica to wield influence over CARICOM states;
• The US hosts the largest population of Jamaicans living outside of the island, estimated at over three million people of Jamaican heritage; and nearly 3 million Americans visit Jamaica every year, making people-to-people connections an integral part of US diplomatic initiatives;
• China has a significant economic footprint in Jamaica with the country serving as a launch-pad for China elsewhere in the hemisphere.

Perhaps of equal, if not greater importance, is the traditional strong partnership between the two countries across all administrations. Also, it used to be, whichever way Jamaica went on foreign policy, others in the region would follow. Not so anymore. But with a CARICOM candidate, Albert Ramdin of Suriname, elected the new Secretary-General of the Organization of American States, the US will look to Jamaica for some leadership in the hemispheric organization.

Following the meeting between Rubio and prime minister Holness, the US Secretary of State held separate bilateral meetings with the prime ministers of Trinidad & Tobago and Barbados — currently chair of CARICOM — and with the current head of the transitional government of Haiti.

Rubio’s and Holness’ joint press conference gave us an indication of what they discussed in their meeting, and offered a glimpse of the direction of Trump’s policy in the region. But it was incomplete.

China in the room

Rubio’s predecessors as Secretaries of State in the first Trump presidency, Rex Tillerson and Mike Pompeo, also visited Jamaica on their first trips to the region. Like Rubio, they all carried an anti-China message, warning of what they call, “China’s predatory economic practices.”

Interestingly, while, as expected, China was on the agenda, neither Rubio or Holness chose to include anything about China in their statements. Rubio only spoke about China in response to a specific question asked at the end of the Q&A session. Rubio repeated what has been his predecessors’ anti-China policy in LAC and around the world. He reiterated their warnings about what they called “China’s predatory economic practices.” But it was a clear warning to Jamaica and the region.

The issues in the context of America First foreign policy

There are a few important policy take-aways from Rubio’s statement to the press which are worthy of note. Comments which provide a glimpse into Trump’s policy for the region. A very nuanced statement, it is important to highlight what was said and what was omitted. Everything Rubio said must be viewed in the context of Trump’s “America First” foreign policy. Without using the term specifically, Rubio was emphatic that relationships and assistance programs must be in sync with Trump administration’s foreign policy — we know that policy is based on America First.

1. While enunciating Trump administration’s policies, generally, Rubio on more than one occasion appeared to exempt Jamaica. Perhaps out of courtesy. But is Jamaica really exempt? Rubio used the word “perhaps” a few times to suggest Jamaica may be in compliance on certain issues. An example of this is Jamaica’s assurance that the Cuban medical mission in Jamaica complies with international labor standards. Perhaps!
   

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2. On security assistance and partnership, there may be a level of relief if Rubio’s assurances are to be taken at face value. While not offering anything new beyond that which has been included in the CBSI program, there seems to be a commitment to continuing the program and perhaps even to enhance it. There were valid concerns that given past experiences with Trump’s first budget proposal, during his first presidency, which cut CBSI funding in half, and given the current foreign assistance cuts, including decimation of USAID programs, Rubio’s assurances of a continued security partnership must be welcomed by Jamaica and the Caribbean. Enhancement of Jamaica’s intelligence capacity is another welcomed commitment by Rubio.

3. Jamaica has a vested interest in the U.S. stepping up its interdiction of illicit guns and ammunition trafficked from the U.S. to Jamaica. Respective Jamaican governments have sought greater efforts by the U.S. but successive U.S. governments have failed to do enough to effectively stem the flow of illegal guns to Jamaica and elsewhere in the region. Rubio promised to do more. Given the Republican Party’s fealty to the constitutionally protected right to bear arms, any effort that could impede those rights are not to be expected.

4. Trade relations and the threat of reciprocal tariffs were also quite concerning. Even though the US already has a significant trade advantage with Jamaica, it should not be assumed the tariff threat is off the table. Holness’ entreaty to renew and maintain the CBERA, which accords duty-free entry of most products from Jamaica and the Caribbean, appeared to have received favorable consideration by Rubio.

5. On energy security, Secretary Rubio stressed the importance of Jamaica benefitting from increased U.S. production of natural gas, including possible reduction in the cost of energy to boost manufactures and the productive sector. Rubio also warned about relying on importation of oil from Venezuela which could trigger US sanctions. Other Caribbean governments are already pushing back on the possible penalties related to use of their ports by Venezuela’s shipment of oil through the region.

6. There appeared to have been no discussion of climate change resilience or the development and use of alternative energy in Jamaica or elsewhere in the region.

The outcomes from this meeting between Rubio and Holness will be largely dependent on how Jamaica responds to Trump’s America First policy bilaterally and regionally, including the level of support the Jamaican government provides the Trump administration on issues in the OAS and in international fora, particularly in the UN.

The Caribbean faces turbulence over Venezuela and Cuba 

Trump’s policy on Venezuela, if aggressively pursued as it was during his first presidency, will be problematic for the region and will result in CARICOM disunity, again.

Trump’s enforcement of its policies against Cuba will also create difficult choices for Jamaica and the region. The top issues will be collateral to Trump’s designation of Cuba as a “state sponsor of terrorism” and characterization of Cuba’s medical missions as “human trafficking.” There are US laws governing both issues that could negatively impact countries not in compliance with these declarations. Secondary sanctions cannot be ruled out in either case.

We now will have to wait and see what comes of all of this. Given the current trajectory of the Trump administration, I would caution nimbleness in approach and strong diplomatic efforts in Washington, not only bilaterally but collectively as CARICOM.

© Curtis A. Ward/The Ward Post