Humanitarian Crises impact decision-making in capitals

Humanitarian Crises impact decision-making in capitals

Ambassador Curtis A. Ward

(20 August 2025) –Reviewing the geopolitical and international security landscape makes my head spin. It is difficult to address some of these issues because of fast-moving parts and an analysis at any given moment in time could be turned inside out in less than 24 hours. Also, critical domestic issues occupy much of our time. Yet, if we ignore geopolitical and international security issues, even if only a snapshot in their evolution, we ignore the serious consequences of neglect.

Issues most threatening to world peace are being militarily determined on the battlefields. But decisions made in major capitals affect every aspect of these conflicts and the extent of the humanitarian crisis. Inconsistent and ineffective peace efforts haven’t changed the suffering. Geopolitics are interrelated to military-security components of the global situation and cannot be ignored. However, military conflicts are the major contributors to the current global humanitarian crisis. Natural disasters and disasters caused by global warming and climate change also contribute to the crisis. Images of human suffering are what the ‘wretched of the earth’ looks like. There are no easy remedies or solutions and ending impunity for egregious behavior remains elusive.

The United Nations Charter (Article 1) lists among the purposes of the organization is “To achieve international cooperation in solving international problems of a … humanitarian character.” The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), in its 2024 report, said there were more than 300 million people globally who need humanitarian assistance and protection. President Trump’s drastic cuts in America’s humanitarian assistance exacerbated a humanitarian situation which called for more and not for less assistance.

August 19, 2025 – World Humanitarian Day – could not be celebrated as a day of progress in reducing human suffering around the world. In fact, the Day was shamefully ignored by most countries on every continent and in every region. OCHA announced that 383 aid workers were killed in 2024. I saw no media focus on the humanitarian crises we too often ignore. That is shocking; especially when one considers that these brave humans lose their lives while seeking to relieve hunger, starvation and suffering among millions of people in conflict zones, some deliberately. Reports suggest aid workers were killed deliberately or carelessly by Israeli troops in Gaza.

Mass starvation in Gaza – a Nazi Germany replay

The devastating humanitarian situation in Gaza, driven by the military and political objectives of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, tops the list. The international community is finally paying attention to this devastating humanitarian situation resulting from Israel’s military response to Hamas’ October 7, 2023, terrorist attack on Israel. It is way beyond being considered collateral damage but central and deliberate to the main objectives of the Netanyahu-led Israeli government. Ethnic cleansing is evident with every military attack on the Palestinian people in Gaza, and on the deliberate starvation of its beleaguered population

Netanyahu’s declared political objectives have caught up with his military actions — total military and political occupation of Gaza. He is starving the Palestinian people to force their expulsion from their lands. Starving the Palestinians in Gaza is not the same as fighting Hamas or taking military action against terrorism. These actions, though connected, are two different issues.

The international community can no longer ignore the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and several countries now seem willing to hold Netanyahu and the Israeli government accountable. Out of this humanitarian disaster of great proportions we see emerging a movement towards the long-awaited recognition of a Palestinian State. While of historic significance, it is no consolation to the suffering citizens of Gaza. While this will not erase the humanitarian atrocities of Netanyahu’s military operations it would be a result unforeseen at the start of Israel’s response to the October 7^th attack. The call for accountability for the genocide and other war crimes in Gaza must not grow less but must be intensified.

Not for the first time, we see a geopolitical shift emerging from a humanitarian crisis. But why should such changes depend on such devastation or the images of women and children who survive bombs and bullets dying from starvation? Especially, when such deprivation is avoidable and is deliberately imposed.

The images of staving and dying children have a way of changing geopolitical dynamics. We have seen this before in places like Cambodia, Sierra Leone, Rwanda, Kosovo, and elsewhere in the Balkans, as well as in other conflict zones, including in Africa.

Russia-Ukraine war – Peace without justice is tenuous

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine raise deep concerns throughout the international community. The UN General Assembly has, in more than one vote, has declared Russia as the aggressor and in violation of the UN Charter and international humanitarian laws. Russia is aided and abetted by China, India, Iran, North Korea, and a host of other countries and governments who do business as usual with Putin’s Russia despite that country’s violations of international law. How they ignore the humanitarian violations and war crimes committed against Ukraine by Russian aggression against another sovereign country defies logic and are themselves aiding and abetting egregious behavior and violations of international law. They are parties to these crimes by directly or indirectly— some by their silence— providing support to Putin despite his egregious behavior.

Now, from the least expected source, we see U.S. president Donald Trump, perhaps frustrated by Russia’s president Vladimir Putin ignoring his original call for a ceasefire, threatened severe economic sanctions on Russia and secondary sanctions in the form of high tariffs on India’s imports Russia – India is the second largest importer of Russian oil, second only to China. These purchases directly strengthen Russia’s economy and finance its illegal war against Ukraine. It is doubtful President Trump, already in tariff negotiations with China, will seek to punish China for purchasing Russian oil. We shouldn’t rule out action against other less-powerful countries which trade with Russia, including exports of raw and processed minerals to Russia, particularly if such minerals as bauxite and alumina aid in Russia’s military manufactures and operations in its aggression against Ukraine.

President Trump, who appeared adamant about an immediate ceasefire, changed course after meeting with Putin in Alaska. He has shifted to negotiation of peace agreement to end the conflict which will take more time to accomplish. In the meantime, humanitarian crisis continues with each Russian attack. Trump’s face-to-face meeting with Putin yielded no discernible success but has made clear that Russia’s original objective of acquiring Ukraine’s territory drew closer to realization. Acquiring the territory of a sovereign state by aggression is being warded for bad behavior.

Trump’s subsequent meetings with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky and a group of top European leaders at the White House, at least for now, agreed on terms for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Most importantly, this would include a security guarantee for Ukraine which Trump indicated would have U.S. support. According to the most recent available reports, Russia rejects any security guarantee for Ukraine that does not include Russia – meaning Russian troops alongside western troops on Ukraine territory. It is too early to conclude whether the war will end any time soon.

There was no indication that the discussions included whether Putin should be held accountable for the war crimes, including violations of international humanitarian laws committed by the Russian military in Ukraine. Peace without justice is tenuous.

50 million USD – on offer to Maduro’s Generals

President Trump during his first four years in office was fixed on regime change in Venezuela. He failed in his efforts to impose Juan Guaidó on the Venezuelan people. Nicolàs Maduro’s generals who were well taken care of by the Venezuelan president did not go along. Some were probably profiteering illegally off Maduro’s presidency. He was their cash cow and facilitator, and they were better off keeping him as president. Some also shared Maduro’s ideology.

But $50 million USD could change the calculus. Call it bribery or by some other name it is the price the Trump administration has put on Maduro’s head. In announcing this bounty on Maduro’s apprehension, the U.S. State Department is gambling that the reward is high enough to shift the dynamics and support of the generals. Loyalty has a price.

Iran crucible for Middle East war

Iran’s nuclear ambitions may have been set back some, but the possibility of a nuclear armed Iran arguably remains less than a year away. An all-out war to stop Iran’s ambitions would have devastating consequences for the Middle East and beyond. Millions would be displaced  triggering another massive humanitarian disaster in the Middle East with Israel at the center of yet another humanitarian crisis.

The claims by some in the Trump administration that Iran’s nuclear weapons program has been obliterated are not backed by convincing evidence. Some experts claim that Iran, after the attack, remains only months away from reviving its nuclear weapons program. The secrecy surrounding Iran’s program leaves many to be second-guessing and engaging in speculation.

One thing that seems certain, or highly likely, is that America’s most powerful non-nuclear bombs could not penetrate the underground shield protecting Iran’s nuclear weapons development sites. To stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons the Trump administration is forced to negotiate with the Iranian government. Back to square one and the JCPOA negotiated by the Obama administration which President Trump abrogated in 2017. Now, returning to a nuclear agreement quite like the JCPOA is probably the only available option short of an all-out war with Iran. Netanyahu opposes a new deal as he did the first.

Israel’s bombing of Iran reportedly destroyed or degraded Iran’s missiles and drones manufacturing capacity. Thus, curtailing supplies of these weapons to Russia to fuel its aggression against Ukraine may have prevented the major summer assault Putin had promised. It may also be a factor being weighed by Putin as he discussed an end to the war with President Trump. But that won’t change Putin’s objective of annexing Ukraine territory. Ceding territory for peace rewards aggression – a bad precedent.

Africa and Caribbean humanitarian crises

The African continent continues to struggle with humanitarian crises – in Sudan, South Sudan, Darfur and elsewhere; and the spread of terrorism in West and East Africa creates massive population displacements and refugees facing food depravation and starvation in some areas.

Like the humanitarian crises in Africa, the international community has failed to respond with an effective solution to end the humanitarian crisis in Haiti. The United Nations World Food Programme said there are “five million people in Haiti that are acutely food insecure, of which 1.6 million are classified as facing emergency food insecurity conditions.” Reports out of Haiti describe starving children in the country, and the UN constrained by limited resources and security provides limited assistance to the Haitian people. Caribbean governments, as has the United Nations, have failed in their attempts to end the control of violent gangs over the capital city. There is no end in sight for the people of Haiti. It requires the entire international community, including the United States to end the violence in Haiti. In the meantime, the humanitarian crisis in Haiti worsens.

©The Ward Post / Curtis A. Ward