A clash of interests and ideology of a future Trump administration

A clash of interests and ideology of a future Trump administration

Ambassador Curtis A. Ward

(03 Decenter 2024) — The Trump presidential campaign brought together a collection of individuals who saw an opportunity for power but their reasons for supporting Trump were at variance. They had different objectives for a future Trump administration. There were those driven by greed, wealth accumulation and power. They bought influence and used their wealth to significantly impact the outcome of the presidential campaign. They used their wealth to position themselves close to Trump. That was easy, given Trump an idolater of wealth.

 On the other side are those driven by extremist ideology and hunger for power. Their objectives are as much in sync with Trump’s rightwing autocratic leanings as it can possibly get. They will embrace ideological extremist policies to empower and realize Trump’s autocratic pursuit.

 While some of these interests converge, others diverge significantly. A clash of interests is unavoidable and inevitable. The competition for influence over the president and the presidency will be intense. Thus, the clash of interests and ideologies greatly enhances the possibility for chaos in the Trump administration.

When elephants fight

The African proverb ‘When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers’ portends the future for those who will be caught between the two sides. It will be cataclysmic for most Americans, and the international community will suffer collateral damage. There is no avoidance of this scenario. The question which arises from this milieu is whether the systemic changes predicted to decimate good governance, and international order will be deep and long-lasting. It is one of the greatest uncertainties of our time.

There are common geopolitical interests on both sides predicated on hate of Cuba’s communist leaders and of Venezuela’s Nicolàs Maduro, and there will be far less tolerance for any Latin American and Caribbean leader who dares to support either against Washington’s objectives or interests in the hemisphere.

Globally, there is unity of purpose in Trump’s inner circle against Iran’s leadership but there is diversity of interests against China and Russia. North Korea is a wild card in this scenario. Much will depend on the extent of China’s and Russia’s patronage of Kim Jong Un that diverges with Trump’s policy. There will be an inevitable clash of economic and political ideology and interests between Washington and American traditional partners and allies. Liberal democracies will be negatively impacted while autocratic leaders will be embraced.

Threats and challenges

There is none among in a future Trump administration who will care about the global humanitarian impact of their policies. Global humanitarian crises already at a historical high will become far worse.

Countries of the global south will be pawns and not players among Trump’s supporters. Pliant countries will be used as obedient servants of the Trump administration. They will bend to Trump’s will or suffer consequences. Or they will choose to remain inconsequential in regional and international affairs.

From the very early stages of the selection process for cabinet and top leadership positions of the new Trump administration it is clear where Trump’s America is heading. What seemed impossible for a country which promotes democracy around the world will now be the country that destroys democracy. It is an eerie feeling. It is a predicate for chaos at home and abroad.

The question which is most troubling is whether the changes Trump implements in the four years of his presidency will be so deep as to extend well into the future. How much of the carnage to democratic principles and the rule of law at home and around the world will be irreversible? And who can prevent these systemic changes from taking place?

Republican legislators’ incompetence

With the republican party in control of both chambers of Congress, at least for the first two years of the Trump administration, it will be incumbent on the few remaining principled republican legislators in both the House and the Senate to curb Trump’s wrecking-ball approach to governance and good order. But it is questionable whether this minority possesses the boldness to stand against Trump and his acolytes. They fear retribution Trump has promised. The depths of their sense of morality and courage will be laid bare. Very little evidence exists they will stand in the breach against Trump’s excessive and extremist behavior.

No matter how the democrats fight the Trump stampede through the democratic process, the democrats alone will not have the power to stop the onslaught. It will be the people, perhaps millions on the street exercising their First Amendment rights and freedoms who may yet provide the foil. The people have the power to stop the Trump marauders.

The triumph of hope

The optimist in me hopes that most Americans will wake up to the reality that there is no exclusive right given to Trump’s supporters to any of the rights and freedoms guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution. Rights that are not restricted to the First Amendment but include the Second Amendment and other constitutional rights.

While this analysis is predicated on the best available evidence of the past and present realities, it does not guarantee the future outcome as foreseen from the facts. It is hoped that the future turns out far less dangerous and chaotic than as predicted.

However, it is best to expect the worst and prepare for a challenging future rather than fold hands in despair and ignore the tragedy heading towards us. No business as usual.

All humanity, all countries will be affected by a future Trump administration. Small countries such as those in the Caribbean, Central America and others around the world will find it most difficult to weather this future storm. They must prepare now and not wait for the deluge of economic and political challenges to descend on them. If for no other reason, political leaders should see this as a warning if not as a prediction of the future and to be prepared.

Regional disunity will be a part of the playbook, and there will spring up towers of babel in every region. Not a prediction, just a logical conclusion.

© Curtis A. Ward/The Ward Post