100 Days of Chaos, Fear, Human Misery, and Global Insecurity

100 Days of Chaos, Fear, Human Misery, and Global Insecurity

An Essay on the Status of the World

Ambassador Curtis Ward

(13 May 2-25) — President Donald Trump’s America First foreign policy during his first 100 days makes the world less safe. The world is in chaos; fear stalks the land which was once hailed as a refuge; human misery is widespread as the U.S. has ended assistance to those in need; and regions of the world are teetering on the brink of conflict.

Global insecurity — Gaza, Iran, Middle East

The world is restless! The Middle East is more unstable now than on Trump’s first day as President. There are serious concerns that President Trump by giving Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu a free hand has put the entire region at risk. No one questions the right of Israelis to live in peace within secure borders with its neighbors. But Netanyahu has pursued a policy of expanding Israel’s border by dominance and oppression of the Palestinian people and control over their territory.

Palestinians in Gaza, including women and children, continue to die from Israel’s guns, bombs, and food deprivation. President Trump has literally given the green light to Israel’s prime minister Netanyahu to continue this tragic onslaught on Palestinians in Gaza and increasing oppression of Palestinians in the West Bank. Ethnic cleansing is now the norm in Gaza. Netanyahu’s military is possibly carrying out genocide in Gaza.

Trump doesn’t care what Netanyahu, and his right-wing supporters do to the Palestinian people. The Trump administration said nothing. The hope for a two-State solution is being shattered in real time and, without the U.S., the international community seems impotent to curb Netanyahu. It raises questions on whether the international community is also abandoning the Palestinians and their right to self-determination and a secured state of their own.

Trump is now pursuing a return to an Iran nuclear deal, after having declared opposition to the Iran nuclear deal (the JCPOA), he formally withdrew in 2018.  The JCPOA was negotiated by President Obama in 2015 to prevent Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. Abrogating the JCPOA was one of the early foreign and security policy errors of the first Trump administration. Overwhelmingly, reputable independent evaluation of the JCPOA concluded that the agreement was working as intended. The Middle East and the international community were much safer then. Israel’s threat to destroy Iran’s nuclear program is increasingly only a ‘bombs away’ order which could trigger a Middle East-wide war. Trump’s pursuit of a new Iran nuclear deal stands in Netanyahu’s way.

There is a resurgence of terrorism in the region, particularly ISIS in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East, which has not received much attention if any at all. Syria’s new president has been in office for Trump’s first 100 days.

US intelligence agencies are being sidelined by President Trump, and the secretary of defense is not competent to lead America’s security forces. Terrorism in West Africa also threatens regional security and stability with implications for Europe and America. President Trump is considering the downsizing of AFRICOM and removing US military forces from Africa.

US & Europe differ on Ukraine—Russia

Russia continues to target-bomb civilians in Ukraine killing scores of civilians, including women and children, and deliberately destroying critical civilian infrastructure. President Trump’s misplaced trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin has allowed Russia to continue its illegal war in Ukraine and emboldened Putin to insist on claims against Ukraine’s sovereign territory in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and a Pyrrhic peace.   There is no guarantee of lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine unless guaranteed by a U.S.-led NATO. Putin cannot be trusted to keep commitments he makes, even in the short term.

European nations are uniting in opposition to Trump’s policies. They are offering increased military support for Ukraine, and expressing solidarity with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. They are moving quickly to modernize and strengthen their own defenses and are committed to lesser reliance on the post-World War II U.S. security blanket. Meanwhile, Trump coerced president Zelenskyy to give the US control of Ukraine’s rear earth minerals.

Nuclear states — India & Pakistan powder keg

India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed states are at each other’s throats. Enemies for several decades, the latest, and one of the most serious military conflicts between them in the past several years, was sparked by a terrorist attack killing over two dozen civilians in Indian-controlled Kashmir. India’s retaliatory strikes on Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, a haven for terrorists, also killing as many  civilians, have been called “an act of war” by Pakistan’s prime minister. Both countries are US allies in the region. Yet US-led diplomatic efforts to contain this conflict from spreading were slow. Rubio had already said America is not the world’s “policeman”. These are not normal times. China which are on both countries’ borders, including the border with Kashmir, is itself at odds with India and cannot be an unbiased broker.  Any temporary ceasefire between these two perpetual enemies will last only until the next flare up.  There are multiple issues between these two countries that could cause the next conflict.

[China-Pakistan border: 347 miles; China-India border: 2,167 miles, some of which is disputed; India-Pakistan border: 2,065 miles].

Trump’s inhumane deportation policy

American citizens, including very young children, are caught up in President Trump’s chaotic, brutal, and inhumane immigration policy and are being illegally deported. Hundreds were sent to Bukele’s gulag in El Salvador — a point of no return. El Salvador’s gulag is a choice destination for Trump’s deportees, and the notoriety of one of Latin America’s most egregious violator of citizens’ rights, El Salvador’s president Nayib Bukele, is perhaps now Trump’s closest ally in the hemisphere.

The American people are resisting through the courts and in the streets of hundreds of cities and towns, and in rural America. The crowds of protesters are growing daily as hundreds of thousands angered over a plethora of Trump’s policies, including his inhumane immigration policy, threats to social security and access to health care — Medicaid for millions of the underserved. Tensions are rising among Americans of all political beliefs. Trump chose a path of confrontation with the courts, thus threatening the rule of law on which American democracy stands. This behavior is characteristic of the behavior of an autocrat.

Rubio’s burden

Governments around the world are forced to deal at a dizzying pace with emerging geopolitical and security issues emerging from President Trump’s America First foreign policy. Secretary Rubio, Trump’s top “diplomat” finds it difficult to convince world leaders he can be trusted to deliver on his word. Most, except for a few naïve foreign leaders, are at odds with his message centered solely and only on America First. But Rubio doesn’t have the last word on America’s foreign policy. He should be reminded of the rebuke Trump gave to Rex Tillerson, Trump’s first secretary of state during his first term. The secretary of state did not have the last word  Not surprising, Tillerson referred to Trump as (an expletive deleted) ‘moron’, and Trump returned the compliment by calling Tillerson ‘dumb as a rock.’ Rubio is not there yet.

Secretary Rubio has drastically slashed U.S. humanitarian assistance and has recoiled from disaster relief. He has abandoned America’s soft-power diplomacy for a coercive foreign policy resting on the premise of America First, and by extension America only. Rubio has weaponized foreign assistance which faces over 80% cuts in Trump’s fiscal 2026 budget. In abdicating America’s traditional leadership role on international humanitarian assistance, Rubio calls on China and India, as powerful economic powers, to take over humanitarian assistance.

Rubio has overseen decimation of the USAID, disengagement and drastic cuts in its programs, and has taken full control over the agency. He is now accountable for chaotic American foreign policy and the tragic circumstances of America’s lack of moral global leadership. By ending USAID humanitarian mission, he is accountable for the suffering of millions and the inevitable death of tens of thousands.

He is now also serving as interim national security adviser to the president, replacing the sacked national security advisor who was on the job for 100 days, along with also being director of USAID, potentially making him the singular most impactful foreign policy architect of the Trump administration.

As the principal proponent of Trump’s foreign policy and non-military foreign engagement, Rubio’s most important message to foreign leaders is the primacy of Trump’s America First foreign policy. His meetings with foreign leaders and the arrogance of his public statements, in the media and otherwise, carry but one message. America First and all governments must fall in line. His stridency on deporting legal immigrants critical of Trump administration’s policies and denying them due process is remarkable.

Rubio now holds four jobs — Secretary of State, acting administrator of the USAID, interim National Security Adviser (NSA), and acting administrator of the National Archives. All part-time jobs? This is an unusual multiplicity of roles and responsibilities, and this foreign policy arrangement reduces the diversity of foreign policy and security advice given to the president.  The NSA position puts Rubio much closer to President Trump and the opportunity to have greater influence over foreign policy and international security policy. But his influence over Trump’s decisions extends only so far as he agrees with the president’s own beliefs. He now assumes a greater role as a Trump sycophant.

The traditional role of Secretary of State has already been diminished with the appointments of special envoys on Russia-Ukraine and Gaza, and on western hemisphere issues. These envoys overshadow the role of the Secretary of State. The troubled and obviously incompetent Secretary of Defense could be the next to be fired. More chaos in US foreign and international security policies are inevitable.

Rubio must deal with North Korea (DPRK), a rogue nuclear state which does not abide any rules, having withdrawn from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). With Russia’s help, the DPRK launched its first missile from its first destroyer. DPRK’s development of nuclear and missile technology increases significantly threats to international peace and security.

Rubio must also assuage Denmark’s anger over Trump’s declarations coveting Greenland territory.

Shambolic tariff policy

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs shook the world threatening economies on every continent. His failing economic policies threatens US global dominance as the value of the U.S. dollar shrinks.

The U.S. economy already feeling effects of Trump’s economic policies has shrunk by 0.3 percent in the first quarter. The results of this shambolic policy has resulted in the direct opposite of what candidate Trump promised the American people. The global economy is severely impacted by, and reeling from Trump’s tariff policy. A failure of his domestic policies parallels the failures of his foreign policy.

A global recession threatens, and US inflation is going up rather than down. Tariff wars on many fronts have galvanized opposition of major trading partners — Canada, China, Mexico, the UK, the EU, and India — to resist and respond to Trump’s tariffs. The impact on the U.S. economy is beginning to hurt US importers and exporters, and consumer prices are set to increase significantly in the months ahead. Price increases will occur even if Trump changes course and reverse his tariffs policy.

Largely impacted by Trump’s chaotic tariff policy, the U.S. stock market after declining to its lowest point in decades, rebounds at hints of progress on tariff resolution. The market has been on a roller coaster. Billions of dollars are being lost and the savings of millions of Americans have been impacted negatively.

Canada’s defiance in defense of its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and economic stability resulted in an election rebuke of Trump’s threatening claims to Canadian territory and his  imposition of punishing tariffs against Canada.  Prime Minister Mark Carney was propelled into office in an election he was not expected to win a couple months earlier. The Trump effect was also felt on the election of a progressive prime minister in Australia.

An increasing number of Trump’s MAGA supporters are opposed to some of Trump’s policies and are growing impatient over his failure to deliver on his economic promises.

Western hemisphere— Cuba, Venezuela, and the Caribbean

While targeting Cuba and Venezuela more specifically, Trump’s hemispheric policies adversely impact Caribbean countries. Designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism and characterizing Cuban medical missions as human trafficking directly impact relations between Cuba and Caribbean governments. Most Caribbean countries depend heavily on Cuban medical personnel. They are forced to wean themselves of this dependence, probably at high financial cost to healthcare delivery and financial cost of replacement alternatives. The underserved in these countries will suffer disproportionately.

Also, designation of Cuba raises significant risks for government and private sector interactions with Cuba. Trump will not rule out secondary sanctions on violators of automatic sanctions on Cuba resulting from designation.

The Trump administration has picked up from where it left off at the end of his first term targeting regime change in Venezuela. Sanctions imposed on Venezuela and Nicolas Maduro have broad implications for several Caribbean governments.

Rubio travels the world to push and impose Trump’s America First foreign policy which he has declared as the basis for all US bilateral relations and global engagement. His travel to the Caribbean region, geared, primarily to promoting this policy, was seen as an effort to gain allies and sycophants among CARICOM members. The perception is that Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad & Tobago are the most vulnerable to U.S. pressure and are the main targets for building support for Trump’s hemispheric, and particularly Caribbean policies. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has made clear its intentions to abandon Haiti, thus making Haiti’s struggle to end gang violence more of a Caricom burden.

The next 100 days will extend the impact of the first. New issues will emerge. The adverse impact so far does not end on day 101 of the Trump presidency.

© Curtis A. Ward/The Ward Post